Name: TransUnion Q3 2025 Earnings Call
Start: 2025-10-23T13:30:00.000Z

Executive Summary

Beat-and-raise quarter: Revenue $1.170B (+7.8% YoY) and Adjusted EPS $1.10 both topped guidance; management raised FY25 revenue growth to 8–8.5% and lifted FY25 Adjusted EPS range to $4.19–$4.25 .
Broad-based momentum: U.S. Financial Services +19% YoY and Emerging Verticals +7.5%; International +6% organic CC with double-digit growth in the UK, Canada, and Africa .
Capital returns accelerating: $160M of buybacks in Q3 and October (YTD $200M) and authorization increased to $1B; leverage ratio at 2.7x (TTM) .
Catalysts into Q4/FY26: Mortgage strategy (VantageScore 4.0 pricing and free evaluation), OneTru migrations and AI-enabled product cadence; 2026 setup includes remaining $35M OpEx savings and capex falling to ~6% of revenue .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- U.S. Financial Services sustained outperformance: +19% YoY (or +12% ex-mortgage), with consumer lending +17% and auto +16%; mortgage +35% despite flat inquiry volumes .
- Emerging Verticals re-accelerated to +7.5% (strongest since 2022), led by insurance (double-digit), Trusted Call Solutions, and improving marketing suite performance .
- Technology modernization delivering: first U.S. credit migrations completed; OneTru enabling faster processing and innovation like TruIQ; “we’re raising our 2025 guidance … strongest underlying growth since 2021” (CEO) .
What Went Wrong
- Consumer Interactive declined 17–18% YoY (lapping prior-year breach remediation win), offsetting otherwise broad-based strength .
- India underperformed plan (+5%): recent U.S. 50% tariff on Indian imports tempered SME/commercial lending; management now expects high-single-digit growth in Q4 rather than faster re-acceleration .
- International margin mixed: International Adj. EBITDA grew +2% with margin at 43.2% (down vs prior-year), reflecting softer regions (APAC -8%) and below-trend India volumes .

Financial Results

Headline metrics vs prior year/quarter

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,085.0	$1,139.7	$1,169.5
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.35	$0.56	$0.49
Adjusted Diluted EPS	$1.04	$1.08	$1.10
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$393.7	$407.0	$425.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	36.3%	35.7%	36.3%

Vs S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025

Metric	Actual	Consensus*	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1,169.5	$1,133.0*	Beat
Primary EPS (Adjusted)	$1.10	$1.04*	Beat
EBITDA ($USD Millions, GAAP)	$345.8	$408.0*	Miss (company focuses on Adj. EBITDA: $425.1)

Segment and geography (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment/Region	Q3 2024 Rev ($M)	Q3 2025 Rev ($M)	YoY (Reported)
U.S. Markets – Financial Services	$367.2	$438.0	+19%
U.S. Markets – Emerging Verticals	$307.2	$330.1	+7%
U.S. Markets – Consumer Interactive	$173.7	$144.8	(17%)
International – Canada	$39.4	$43.4	+10%
International – Latin America	$33.5	$33.7	+1%
International – United Kingdom	$57.8	$71.4	+24%
International – Africa	$17.1	$19.4	+14%
International – India	$68.2	$68.5	~Flat; +5% organic CC
International – Asia Pacific	$25.6	$23.7	(8%)

Capital & liquidity KPIs

KPI	Q3 2025	Notes
Cash & Cash Equivalents	$749.9M	Up vs $679.5M at 12/31/24
Leverage Ratio (TTM)	2.7x	Net debt $4.37B; TTM Adj. EBITDA $1.61B
Share Repurchases	$160M in Q3+Oct; $200M YTD	Authorization raised to $1B
9M25 Cash from Ops	$668.1M
9M25 Capex	$229.3M	~7% of revenue (9M)
Dividend	$0.115/share declared (Q3)	Payable 12/8/25

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (7/24/25)	Current Guidance (10/23/25)	Change
Revenue (Reported)	FY 2025	$4.432B–$4.472B	$4.524B–$4.544B	Raised
Organic CC Revenue Growth	FY 2025	6%–7%	8%	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$1.580B–$1.610B	$1.622B–$1.637B	Raised
Adj. EBITDA Margin	FY 2025	35.7%–36.0%	35.9%–36.0%	Slightly higher
Adjusted Diluted EPS	FY 2025	$4.03–$4.14	$4.19–$4.25	Raised
Adjusted Tax Rate	FY 2025	—	~26.5%	New detail
Revenue (Reported)	Q4 2025	—	$1.119B–$1.139B	New
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 2025	—	$393M–$407M	New
Adjusted Diluted EPS	Q4 2025	—	$0.97–$1.02	New
Segment outlook (Organic CC)	FY 2025	—	U.S. Mkts HSD; FS mid-teens (~10% ex-mortgage); Mortgage ~+30%; Emerging Verticals MSD; Consumer Interactive down LSD (LSD growth ex-breach); International MSD	New
Capex	FY 2025 / 2026	~8% of revenue (2025)	6% in 2026 (target)	Maintained/extended
Capital Returns	Ongoing	—	Buyback authorization to $1B; expect continued repurchases	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
AI/Tech modernization (OneTru)	Focus on execution/value creation; transformation enabling faster innovation	First U.S. credit migrations; TruIQ live; OneTru accelerating innovation; $35M OpEx savings in 2026; capex to 6% in 2026	Positive execution; savings ramp 2026
Mortgage dynamics & scoring	Mortgage tailwind ~2 pts to growth; raised FY outlook	Introduced VantageScore 4.0 at $4 with free evaluation; expect share shift over time; details on preserving mortgage profitability	Strategic offensive; cost-certainty to clients
Macro/tariffs	Monitoring uncertainty; India low-single-digit Q1	India +5% but tempered by new U.S. tariff; expect HSD Q4; watch SME credit	Mixed near term; long-term confident
Product performance	Insurance strength; portfolio diversification	FactorTrust, Trusted Call Solutions (> $150M ’25, +30% YoY), marketing suite re-accelerating	Broad-based product momentum
Regional trends	India accelerated to +8% in Q2; Canada/Africa double-digit	UK +11%, Canada +11%, Africa +12%; APAC -8%	Mature markets leading; APAC soft
Capital returns/leverage	Deleveraging to 2.8x; buybacks resumed	2.7x leverage; authorization to $1B; continued repurchase bias	Increasing buybacks; steady deleveraging

Management Commentary

“Revenue growth was 8 percent; excluding last year’s large breach remediation win, organic constant currency growth was 11 percent, our strongest underlying growth since 2021.” — Chris Cartwright, CEO
“We are raising our 2025 guidance … supported by third quarter outperformance, stable U.S. lending trends, and strong commercial momentum.” — CEO
“U.S. Financial Services revenue grew 19% … Consumer lending grew 17% … Auto grew 16% … Mortgage revenue grew 35% on flat inquiry volumes.” — Todd Cello, CFO
“By year end, we expect OneTru to power a critical mass of our run-rate U.S. Credit volume and revenue, and we plan to complete all U.S. migrations by mid-2026.” — CEO
“We believe [mortgage score] changes are a net positive for TransUnion … VantageScore 4.0 … offered at $4 … we’ll also provide a free VantageScore … through 2026.” — CEO

Q&A Highlights

Growth drivers and pricing: Majority of pricing uplift in U.S. Markets from mortgage; non-credit momentum from Trusted Call Solutions and marketing; continued share gains via innovation like FactorTrust .
Investment vs margins: Flow-through moderated by reinvestment into AI and go-to-market; “solid” margin expansion expected in 2026 as savings kick in and capex drops to 6% .
Emerging Verticals sustainability: Q3 strength not one-time; insurance, communications (Trusted Call), and marketing all contributing, with public sector lagging .
Mortgage model change: VantageScore 4.0 pricing/free evaluation designed to shift economics toward data providers, preserve TU mortgage profitability in 2026 regardless of delivery model, and promote inclusion; Tri-merge viewed as critical to safety/soundness .
India trajectory: Tariff headwinds dampening SME lending; management still expects HSD Q4 growth with longer-term runway intact; India ~7% of total revenue .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 results were above consensus on revenue and adjusted EPS: $1.170B vs $1.133B*; $1.10 vs $1.04*; SPGI EBITDA consensus ($408M*) compares to GAAP EBITDA of $345.8M (company emphasizes Adjusted EBITDA $425.1M) .
Guidance implies upward estimate revisions: FY25 revenue to $4.524–$4.544B (from $4.432–$4.472B prior) and Adjusted EPS to $4.19–$4.25 (from $4.03–$4.14) .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Beat-and-raise signals durable momentum across Financial Services, Emerging Verticals, and key international markets; Adj. EBITDA margin steady at 36.3% despite reinvestment .
Mortgage strategy (VantageScore 4.0 pricing/free evaluation) is designed to preserve vertical profitability and potentially drive incremental margin over time; watch adoption milestones into 2026 .
India is the main watch-item near term due to tariff-driven SME softness; management still expects improvement in Q4 and strong long-term growth .
Capital returns re-accelerating with $1B authorization and 2.7x leverage; expect continued buybacks alongside natural delevering .
2026 setup: remaining $35M OpEx savings and capex down to ~6% underpin potential margin expansion and 90%+ FCF conversion .
Product flywheel (FactorTrust, TruIQ, Trusted Call, integrated marketing suite) benefits from OneTru and AI, supporting share gains and pricing power .
Near-term trading: narrative anchored on continued outperformance, FY25 guidance raise, and Q4 guide; sensitivity to mortgage volumes and India headlines.

TransUnion (TRU)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary